September Market Report 2024

Key Insights from Dexter’s September 2024 Report

• Bank of Canada expected to cut rates by 0.5% in October

• Sales in Metro Vancouver decline for the fifth consecutive month

• Highest number of Vancouver condo listings since 2012

• Buyers should act now before competition increases as rates fall further

September 2024 was a month of promises and uncertainty. The Bank of Canada cut its interest rate for the third consecutive time, and the U.S. followed suit with its first rate cut, a bold half-point reduction. Economic indicators point to another 0.5% rate cut from the Bank of Canada in October. Meanwhile, British Columbia heads to the polls in late October, adding political promises into the mix, particularly around housing affordability.

Buyers, however, seemed hesitant in September, waiting to see how these economic shifts would unfold. Sellers, on the other hand, flooded the market, with listings surging to their highest level since 2019. This created a window of opportunity for buyers to take advantage of the increased inventory before the anticipated rate cuts spark renewed competition.

For homeowners with variable-rate mortgages or lines of credit, September’s quarter-point cut reduced borrowing costs. While some expected a half-point reduction, it leaves room for further cuts in the Bank of Canada’s final two meetings this year. With inflation lagging, more aggressive cuts could bring the rate to 3.5% or lower by early 2025. However, buyers hoping for large fixed-rate drops may be disappointed, as bond yields—already factoring in expected rate cuts—have caused fixed rates to decline by more than 1.5% from their highs. Variable-rate mortgages now present the most significant savings, offering an advantage to buyers who act before spring competition intensifies.

Sales Trends and Market Dynamics In Greater Vancouver, 1,852 properties were sold in September, continuing the decline from 2,418 in June, 2,333 in July, and 1,903 in August. This marks a 4% drop compared to September 2023. Despite high listing volumes, many buyers are waiting for further rate cuts and government housing measures. The federal government's upcoming extension of mortgage amortizations and increased thresholds for insured mortgages offer some relief—but not until December, pushing even more buyers toward the spring market.

Sales were 26% below the 10-year average, with inventory levels offering buyers more choices than they've had since 2019. September brought 6,228 new listings to the market, a significant 48% increase from August and the highest number of new listings since May. Sellers were eager to enter the fall market, but buyer reluctance meant more homes sat unsold.

Condo and Detached Markets Greater Vancouver ended September with 14,932 active listings, up from 13,812 in August. Condos, in particular, saw the biggest jump in listings, with 39% more inventory year-over-year. Vancouver’s westside condos have the most active listings since 2012, sitting with 10 months of supply—partly driven by changes to rental and short-term rental regulations. On the east side, where prices are $200,000 lower on average, sales increased, leaving just five months of supply.

In the detached market, months of supply rose to 11, pushing some areas into a strong buyer’s market. As political debates and rate cuts dominate October, affordability remains the key issue for many. Buyers who act now can take advantage of the current inventory before the spring rush, while others will have to navigate a market primed for more competition as rates drop further.

September offered buyers increased choice, but the clock is ticking before the next rate cut triggers more activity. The market may be quieter now, but savvy buyers should move before the spring rush hits.

For more detail on your area contact me via email-kit@kitbrown.ca or by cell 778.828.9891